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Ruiqi Li: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA.
On leave of absence from: School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing. Email: liruiqi@mit.edu, liruiqi@mail.bnu.edu.cn.
- Bertrand Roehner: Institute for Theoretical and High Energy Physics (LPTHE), University of Paris (Pierre and Marie Curie), Paris, France. Email: roehner@lpthe.jussieu.fr
For those who are fond of science fiction, this book can
be seen as a continuation of Isaac Asimov's ``Foundation'' trilogy.
While Asimov does not tell us how his ``psychohistorians''
were able to perform their job,
this book explains how it can possibly be done.
``There is a strong family resemblance about the misdeeds, and if you
have all the details of a thousand at your finger ends, it is odd
if you can't unravel the thousand and first.''
(Sir Athur Conan Doyle, The Valley of Fear, 1915).
If, like us, you take pleasure in the investigations of Sherlock Holmes
you will find that the
methods used in the present book parallel many of his inquiry techniques,
e.g. his reliance on the
annals of crime, on his magnifying glass or on such
specialized tools as his comprehensive
monograph of cigarette butts.
Part 1: Scientific analysis of historical events: method and
case studies of facets of US vs. PRC
Ch. 1: What motivated the attack of 11 September 2001?
Translated by Renjie Xu
``Chinese only'' version of ``Preface+Chapter 1''
Ch. 3: National activation in China and other countries.
Translated by Peipei Liu
Ch. 5: ``The Pacific as an American lake''
Translated by Peipei Liu
Part 2: Scientific analysis of historical events: concepts
Ch. 7: Analytical history: Where history and sociology meet
Translated by Peipei Liu, Yulang Qin, Renjie Xu
Ch. 8: What is to be done?
Translated by Ruiqi Li
COUNTER of the number of VISITORS
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The Preface and Chapter 1 should already give
a good idea of the objective and of the method for
transforming history into
a testable science, a transition similar to the one
which led from astrology to astronomy.